The Jacksonville Jaguars hold the 1st overall pick & potentially the next 10 – 20 years of success in their hands….No pressure right?
I want to note going into this I was on the Trevor Lawrence train. I have said since the end of 2019, “I don’t care who is on our team if we are in a position to draft Trevor, we get him!”
Now fast forward a year and a half. After the tumultuous 2020 season the Jaguars had they need to right the ship and this decision can make or break the franchise. If the wrong decision is made, the Jaguars will doom themselves into oblivion for the next decade. I would assume, Shad Khan would then have to move the team to try and rejuvenate a fan base at that point.
So how do they stop this doom and gloom from occurring? The first task is on Urban Meyer and Trent Baalke to nail the 2021 first round selections (the currently hold the 1st overall and the 25th from the Rams). To do this they need to draft a QB with the first overall pick, either Trevor Lawrence or Justin Fields.
Below I have illustrated their Collegiate careers.
Games started vs Games Available:
Trevor’s Career encompasses 40 games, 37 of which he started. He was out once for Covid in 2020, he did not start wk 2 or wk 9 of his Freshman year. Of those 37 games he started, he won 35 losing only in the 2019 NCAA Championship game vs LSU and the 2020 Sugar Bowl to OSU.
Justin’s Career encompasses 33 games, 21 of which he started. Of those 21 games he started he won 19 losing to Clemson in the 2019 Fiesta Bowl and the 2020 NCAA Championship game vs ALA.
Now this may seem innocuous, but having 16 more starts over Justin is impressive. This breaks out to an entire additional Collegiate season of tape that we have on Trevor compared to Justin.
In Trevor’s 40 games he had 758 completions on 1,138 attempts, 66.6% completion rate. Of those 758 completions he had 10,098 yds for an average of 13.3 yds per completion. He threw for 90 TDs and 17 Interceptions, at 7.9% and 1.5% respectively per attempt. His total QB rating was 164.3.
Trevor’s best season was 2019 where he won 14 of 15 games with 3,665 Yds on 407 attempts for 65.85% completion rate. He threw 36 TDs (13.43%) and 8 Int (best season was 2018 where he had 4). For a total QBR of 166.7 (highest was in 2020 with 169.2),
In Justin’s 33 games he had 406 completions on 585 attempts, 69.4% completion rate. Of those 406 completions he had 5,507 yds for an average of 13.6 yds per completion. He threw for 66 TDs and 9 Interceptions, at 11.3% and 1.5% respectively per attempt. His total QB rating was 182.6.
Justin’s best season was 2019 also, where he won 13 of 14 games with 3,273 Yds on 354 attempts for 67.23% completion rate. He threw 41 TDs (17.43%) and 3 Int (best season was 2018 where he had 0). For a total QBR of 181.4 (best QBR he had).
Trevor has 943 yds rushing, average of 23.6 yds per game, and 17 TDs (1.8% per rush). His average yds per attempt is 4.1.
Justin has 1066 yds rushing, average of 32.3 yds per game, and 19 TDs (1.78% per rush). His average yds per attempt is 4.2.
Who would you draft?
Going into this as noted I was all Trevor. After doing a little more research on the two I am thankful I don’t have to make this selection. I believe in my gut that Trevor is the guy, his additional 16 game experience brings a little more situational football. He has a slightly less TD percentage than Justin but I equate that to the additional 16 games. They are about even in rushing attempts and yds per carry.
Overall either QB will bring fundamental change to the team that drafts them. All I know is 2021 is going to be exciting and I am here for it!